It is cautiously expected that in the fourth quarter of 2008, under the weight of the global economic crisis, the operating performance of the electronic component manufacturing industry, which was originally in the downturn, will decline sharply, whether it is the international leading electronic product manufacturer or the domestic electronic component production Business, the quarter’s performance generally dropped significantly. The industry has entered a low point of prosperity. And this has brought a cautious forecast of the industry situation in 2009. International research institutions generally believe that the global semiconductor industry revenue in 2009 will decline year-on-year.

Entering 2009, orders have picked up

There are many reasons for the sharp decline in the performance of the 4th quarter. The decline in terminal demand is the main reason. The downstream enterprises' large-scale digestion and adjustment of inventories out of the principle of prudence are also factors that cannot be ignored. Entering 2009, the inventory of downstream companies has been at a low level, and some demand still exists, resulting in the effect of urgent orders in January and February. Based on the statistics of monthly revenue data of some Taiwanese companies, as well as the understanding of some domestic listed companies, due to the influence of the Spring Festival and the continuous inventory adjustment, the revenue in January still fell month-on-month, but the order situation was slightly better than expected. Especially in February, the orders of some companies increased significantly.

It is not yet possible to believe that the industry has entered a recovery

However, it cannot be said that the industry has entered a recovery. There are three main reasons: (1) Short-term orders are predominant, reflecting that downstream companies are still cautious; (2) Downstream industry demand has not fully recovered. Terminal demand such as NB is relatively large, while the demand for some other downstream products has not recovered significantly; 3) The recovery of overseas markets is a factor that cannot be ignored. Inferring from the January data released by the American Supply Chain Management Association, the output of American computers and electronic products is still declining.

The electronic components sector rose sharply, and the risks gradually accumulated

The recent gains in the electronic components sector far surpassed the broader market. The judgment of the bottom of the economy, the expectation of quarter-on-quarter growth in performance, and the majority of small-cap stocks and the fragmentation of sub-sectors have made this sector the target of choice for theme and theme investment. With the approach of the official announcement date of the plan and the intensive announcement of the annual report, the potential risks in this sector are also accumulating. Maintain the industry's "Neutral" rating.

The recovery of the industry depends on the overall improvement of the economy, focusing on two types of companies

The recovery of the electronic component industry is inseparable from the overall improvement of the macro economy. The economic trend during the year is still uncertain from the internal and external environments. The electronic components sector is more likely to have trading opportunities in the swing market. It is recommended to focus on two types of companies: (1) The performance during the year may be supported in downstream applications such as communications, military industry, and new energy; (2) Companies with relatively stable operations and high management levels that have been proven by history, especially Leading stocks in the electronics industry. Maintain the “overweight” ratings of Hengdian DMC, Leybold High-Tech, Topband Electronics, and Guangzhou Guoguang.